Chapter 336 - 119: Martial Law in Poland

Chapter 336: Chapter 119: Martial Law in Poland

"Please, sit," Werner said, gesturing to the seat opposite him.

Charlie sat down and glanced around, making sure no one was paying them any mind before lowering his voice. "Betelich, the information you sent through Werner is very interesting. You claim you can provide the economic intelligence we need?"

"Yes," Werner said, stubbing out his cigarette. "Charlie, I think we both understand that President Reagan won’t be satisfied with containment. What he wants is victory."

"Go on," Charlie said, his expression unchanged.

"The new administration’s strategy is clear," Werner said. "The arms race is just on the surface; the real battlefield is the economy. Force the Soviet Union to increase military spending while simultaneously cutting off their sources of foreign currency, preventing them from buying Western technology and equipment. It’s a war of attrition. We’ll see who gives out first."

A flicker of interest appeared in Charlie’s eyes. "You seem to understand Washington’s thinking quite well."

"Because it’s the only logical strategy." Werner took a thick folder from his briefcase. "And if you want to win this economic war, you need to know your opponent’s bottom line. How much do they have in foreign reserves? What’s their industrial capacity? How long can their energy supply last? How large is their foreign debt?"

He pushed the folder across the table. "I have all of that data."

Charlie opened it and began flipping through the pages, his expression growing more and more grim.

The documents detailed:

The decline in Soviet Union oil production and resulting limits on export capacity

The severe aging of East Germany’s industrial equipment and its urgent need for Western technological upgrades

The chaos in the Eastern Europe trade system caused by the crisis in Poland, and the resulting foreign currency shortage in all countries

Detailed data on Koko’s foreign currency-earning operations

The scale and structure of trade between East Germany and the Soviet Union

"How accurate is this data?" Charlie asked, looking up.

"Completely reliable," Werner said. "Koko controls all of East Germany’s foreign currency-earning operations and has extensive trade dealings with the Soviet Union. I handle this data every day."

Charlie continued to leaf through the file. "Some of these numbers... are far more severe than our previous estimates."

"Not only are they severe, they’re getting worse," Werner said. "What you’re seeing is just the surface. The reality is that the entire Eastern European economic system is being propped up by foreign debt. East Germany is borrowing from West Germany, Poland owes tens of billions of US dollars, and Hungary isn’t much better off. And the Soviet Union has its own problems—falling oil prices, the massive drain from the war in Afghanistan, and ever-heavier military spending."

He lit another cigarette. "Charlie, I can tell you, this system can’t hold out for much longer. If you keep applying pressure, cut off technology exports, control credit, and add the arms race on top of it... the Soviet Union will collapse within ten years."

Charlie was silent for a long time. Finally, he closed the folder. "Betelich, if this intelligence is genuine, its value is immeasurable."

"I can provide continuous updates on the economic situation in East Germany, the Soviet Union, and all of Eastern Europe. This intelligence will help Washington formulate more precise strategies. But I have two conditions."

"Name them."

"First, my identity must be kept absolutely secret. If I’m exposed, my family and I are finished."

"That’s a fundamental principle."

"Second," Werner said, looking at him, "I don’t want money. I have plenty of money. I want a guarantee—that when this is all over, when the Two Germanys are reunified, you will support me, either publicly or privately, and help me clear up my... complicated past."

Charlie’s eyes narrowed. "You have a lot of foresight, Betelich."

"Charlie, I know that what I’m doing could be seen as treason by some in the future. But with the support of the United States government, the nature of it changes completely. I need that guarantee."

Werner knew he didn’t need to explain his motives to Charlie in too much detail.

’He wouldn’t say that he didn’t actually subscribe to Western values. He wouldn’t say that he was simply riding the tide of history, just as he’d ridden the East German system to make money twenty years ago.’

’Now it was time to change course. And that change required preparation, groundwork, and sufficient protection for the future day of reckoning.’

’America’s opinion would carry a lot of weight in a reunified Germany. That was enough.’

Charlie thought for a moment. "I’ll need to report this to Washington, but my personal opinion is that your conditions are reasonable. This isn’t a one-time deal, is it?"

"Of course not," Werner said. "I can provide intelligence continuously to help you more accurately assess the situation and form strategies. My position at Koko gives me access to the most core economic data. All I want in return is a guarantee."

Charlie stood up and extended his hand. "Betelich, I believe we can have a very good partnership."

"I believe so, too," Werner said, shaking his hand.

"We’ll be in touch, then," Charlie said. "The next time we meet, I’ll have Washington’s official response."

"I’ll be waiting for your message."

Charlie picked up the folder and walked out of the café.

Werner watched him get into his car and drive away, then lit another cigarette.

The lake’s surface shimmered, and the sound of a ship’s horn echoed from the distance. A few seagulls circled in the sky, letting out sharp cries.

Werner finished his coffee, paid the bill, and walked slowly toward the parking lot.

***************

The next morning, Werner went to Koko Headquarters.

The atmosphere in Gunter’s office was a bit tense.

Besides Gunter, two other men were there: one was an official from the Ministry of Finance, and the other was a representative from the Soviet economic advisory group.

"Werner, you’ve come at the right time," Gunter said. "We’re discussing the foreign debt problem."

Werner sat down. "What’s happened?"

"The West German Bank has suddenly tightened its credit," said the official from the Ministry of Finance, a gaunt man in his forties with a grim expression. "Our application for a fifty million Mark loan was rejected."

"On what grounds?"

"No explicit reason was given," the official said. "Just that the ’risk assessment has changed.’ But we all know this is a political decision. Since Reagan took office, the West has begun to tighten its credit policy toward the East."

Something clicked in Werner’s mind.

’This was exactly the trend he had mentioned to Charlie yesterday—cutting off sources of foreign currency. It seemed Washington was already making its move.’

"What is the current scale of our foreign debt?" Werner asked.

The Ministry of Finance official hesitated, glanced at the Soviet representative, and finally said, "Eighteen billion West German Marks. And we have to keep borrowing, because we need to import equipment and technology from the West."

"Eighteen billion?" Werner feigned shock. "That much?"

"And then there’s Poland," the Soviet representative spoke up. He was a Russian in his fifties who spoke German with an accent. "Poland’s foreign debt has already exceeded twenty billion US dollars, and they can’t pay it back. If Poland defaults, the credit rating of all of Eastern Europe will plummet, and then none of us will be able to borrow money."

The room fell silent.

Gunter lit a cigarette. "So we have to find a way to earn more foreign currency. Werner, do you have any new channels on your end?"

"I’m working on it," Werner said. "But to be honest, the situation is getting more and more difficult. The West’s embargo list is growing longer, there are many things we simply can’t buy, and even when we can, transferring them is becoming increasingly hard. And..."

He paused. "And I’m worried this is just the beginning. Reagan isn’t Carter; he won’t go easy on us. If the West fully tightens credit and cuts off technology exports, our situation will become even more difficult."

"Then what do we do?" the Ministry of Finance official asked anxiously. "If we can’t borrow money, many factories will have to shut down, and there will be shortages of consumer goods."

The Soviet representative said coldly, "Then we strengthen our internal circulation and reduce our dependence on the West."

Werner almost laughed out loud. ’Internal circulation? The industrial equipment of the entire Eastern European economic system was obsolete, its products uncompetitive, and its technology at least a decade behind the West’s. Reduce dependence on the West? Rely on what? The Soviet Union? The Soviet Union couldn’t even take care of itself.’

But he didn’t say it out loud, merely nodding. "That is indeed one direction to consider."

After the meeting, Werner returned to his office.

He closed the door, took a small notebook from his drawer, and recorded the contents of the meeting:

East Germany’s foreign debt: 18 billion West German Marks and growing.

West German Bank tightening credit; 50 million Mark loan rejected.

Poland’s foreign debt over 20 billion US dollars; facing risk of default.

Soviet representative proposed "strengthening internal circulation"—shows Moscow is also aware of the foreign currency crisis.

East German Ministry of Finance official showing clear panic.

’Charlie would be very interested in this intelligence.’

**************

「December 13, 1981. Predawn.」

Werner was jolted awake by the ringing of the telephone. He glanced at the clock on his bedside table: 3:20 AM.

"Hello?"

"Werner, it’s me, Krzysztof." The voice on the other end was rushed and strained. "Something big has happened."

Werner was instantly wide awake. He sat up and lowered his voice. "What is it?"

"Martial law," Krzysztof said. "Jaruzelski has declared martial law. The army has taken over the country, and the leaders of the Solidarity Union have all been arrested. Werner, Warsaw is full of tanks and soldiers. All civilian communications have been cut off."

"What about Walesa?" he asked.

"Arrested," Krzysztof said. "Gdansk, Warsaw, Krakow—the key members of the Solidarity Union in all the major cities were rounded up overnight. The military’s plan was meticulous. They’ve clearly been preparing for a long time."