Chapter 657: Considerations on Betting

Meanwhile, in Community 2's audience section.

Qin Cheng was observing the other communities. Since every player had a nameplate in front of them, identifying people was easy.

"Shengjie, look. Community 23's Jury Representative is Wu Xiufang.

"That suggests she's already wrapped things up after returning to the community, and has at least temporarily established herself in a leadership position.

"She looks completely different from how I imagined her.

"Community 11's Jury Representative is Bai Zhilan, but Xu Guangxin is also there.

"That means after 'A Single Word to Settle a Case,' the community did eventually accept Xu Guangxin back, even though his actions in the game led to the deaths of community members.

"I wonder how they worked through that internally.

"And then Community 16: those must all be old acquaintances of Zhang Yan's. I recognise two of the players from the last game."

Ye Lin was wearing a more serious expression than usual, discussing the previous round with Zhang Yan.

"Do you think Lawyer Lin's Character Dossier identifies him as the murderer?

"If so, clearing his name could be very difficult. The players in this game don't look like pushovers."

Zhang Yan was also frowning in thought, "Why are suspects the ones who get to submit evidence?

"The Evidence Room must be full of materials. Every suspect can probably find things that work in their favour or against someone else.

"In that case, couldn't Tang Qing and Wang Yongxin just pick only the evidence that benefits them?

"As long as they agree not to undermine each other, wouldn't they be in an unassailable position?

"That seems quite unfair to the Doctor and the Lawyer."

Ye Lin considered briefly, "This game has the character of a trial. The difference is that Actors are playing the parts of the accused rather than the actual offenders.

"Games with a trial nature tend to involve unequal competition.

"That said, the Lawyer and Doctor aren't completely without options.

"Because the game includes a jury verification function, I'd guess the Detective and the Wealthy Merchant have no way of knowing in advance whether the evidence they choose is authentic or what it might reveal.

"Among all the available evidence, they can certainly gravitate toward items that appear favourable to them, but if those items turn out to be false upon verification, or if verification reveals something that works against them, it would backfire badly.

"So they have to be careful about what they choose.

"Sometimes they may face a genuine dilemma: choosing between evidence that is real but unfavourable to them, or evidence that seems helpful but risks being exposed as false.

"Some evidence may relate directly to areas of law or medicine. If the Detective or Wealthy Merchant doesn't have the relevant knowledge, bringing it forward could expose a weakness that the Lawyer or Doctor can exploit."

Zhang Yan shook his head slightly, "Something still feels off to me."

Ye Lin turned to the row behind, "Speaking of Feng Yuguang: Qin Cheng, he's the player you identified during the Pain Game, isn't he?"

Qin Cheng nodded, "Yes. At the time, he was in the same zone as me and Zheng.

"His loyalties tend to shift. He can't be counted on as a reliable ally.

"Zhang Yan was originally in Community 16, so he'd know him better than I do."

Zhang Yan nodded, "Yes, that's right.

"This match is a high-pressure situation for him. He'll most likely be forced into a defensive stance.

"After all, the other three suspects all look like they're their respective communities' core game players. The confidence of the strong is written in every gesture."

Lu Qi had been struggling to find an opening in the conversation. When the others seemed to have finished, she quickly asked, "Are we going to place any bets?

"The rules say each audience member has to bet at least 30,000 minutes of visa time. Otherwise the full 30,000 will be deducted as a penalty when we leave.

"So we need to bet at some point. Have I understood that correctly?"

Huang Shengjie thought for a moment, "What about just throwing everything on Lawyer Lin?"

Ye Lin considered briefly, "We need to account for how odds shift. Every bet has different odds.

"While betting earlier gives higher odds, you also have to factor in how frequently the Actor speaks and how many times bets have already been placed on them.

"In theory, the odds could still go up."

Huang Shengjie caught on immediately, "Oh! Ye Lin, you mean that if Lawyer Lin keeps speaking frequently in subsequent rounds, his share of stage time will continue increasing, which pushes his odds up.

"And on the other side, everyone has a 30,000 quota but can split it across multiple bets. If other audience members keep betting on other people, the proportion of bets on Lawyer Lin will fall, which also pushes his odds up.

"So even if we decide to put the full 30,000 on Lawyer Lin in one go, we should still time it for when his odds are highest."

Ye Lin nodded, "Right. What are the current odds for Lawyer Lin and Tang Qing?"

Everyone made a quick check on their small screens.

The odds were shifting in real time but had broadly stabilised.

Qin Cheng reported, "Tang Qing is at 2.8, Lawyer Lin is at 2.5, Wang Yongxin is at 2.3, Feng Yuguang is at 2.7.

"As expected, betting in Round One carries the highest risk, so all four are sitting at relatively high odds.

"These numbers suggest that among the more impulsive bettors, more people are backing Lawyer Lin and Wang Yongxin."

Lu Qi looked puzzled, "How can you tell?"

Qin Cheng explained, "Odds are influenced by three factors. The first, timing, is the same for everyone at this point. The second is that more stage time means higher odds. The third is that fewer bets on a player means higher odds.

"Looking at the situation, the order by stage time so far is probably Tang Qing, Lawyer Lin, Wang Yongxin, with Feng Yuguang the least. But Lawyer Lin and Wang Yongxin have noticeably lower odds, which means more people have bet on them, pulling the odds down."

Huang Shengjie noticed something, "Wait, actually, doesn't it always make more sense to bet in a single large amount rather than in small increments?

"If you bet in 1,000 increments, 30,000 means 30 separate bets. And betting on the same person more times also lowers their odds.

"But a lot of audience members still seem to be betting in instalments."

Qin Cheng explained, "That's also understandable. Putting your full 30,000 on a single Actor all at once is a high-risk move.

"Spreading it across multiple bets on multiple Actors reduces the odds per bet, but also distributes the risk, so you don't end up losing everything at once."

Ye Lin added, "The odds in this game probably won't drop below 1, which means as long as the Actor you bet on doesn't receive more than half of the Oppose Votes, any bet at all gives a positive return.

"So spreading bets isn't necessarily wrong. You just need your winnings to cover your losses.

"The four communities without an Actor have no fixed stake in any particular outcome and will likely use exactly this kind of strategy."

Huang Shengjie scratched his head, "So what should we actually do?"

Qin Cheng thought it over and suggested, "Put all 30,000 on Lawyer Lin in one go. It's not just a matter of game strategy. It's also about trust between community members.

"That said, we should still wait for the right moment and try to get the best odds we can."

After a brief discussion, the group decided not to place any bets yet and to keep waiting.