Chapter 635: Speculation

Huang Shengjie looked puzzled, "Did Li Mao tell you all of this? Why would he?"

Yao Yuan explained, "This could be false information, but based on what we've seen so far, the credibility seems reasonable, because it can be cross-referenced with other sources, and there are no obvious contradictions in what we've gathered so far.

"Li Mao is almost certainly the type of player who goes wherever the wind blows.

"I could tell he's deeply dissatisfied with Zhao Heng, and his standing within Community 23 is also somewhat awkward.

"This game is a distribution-type game, and veteran players know it's the type most suited to switching communities. So Li Mao does have some inclination toward making a move.

"He provided this information as a bargaining chip, hoping I'd accept him into Community 2 on behalf of the community.

"But his condition was that I, as part of Community 2's leadership, guarantee him the right to use the medications freely in our community.

"So we couldn't reach an agreement in the end.

"Overall, Community 23's team of five has quite a coherent structure.

"Zhao Heng is the absolute leader. Wu Xiufang is a talented new player he promoted as an exception. Li Mao resents him but isn't willing to be the first one to act.

"Zhou Xiaoying and Peng Xinyuan are the community's lower-tier players, but they're bound together under the collective punishment arrangement, and having been through things together they have a degree of attachment to each other, which makes it very difficult for either of them to decisively cut ties and go to a community full of strangers.

"Their division of roles is clear, and their power structure is well defined. Add to that the fact that Wu Xiufang is a genuinely excellent new player, so it's not particularly surprising that they had the advantage in the early stages."

Zhou Wanlin was thoughtful, "So Wu Xiufang's role in Community 23 is something like what Dr Qin is to us?

"Either way, it sounds like poaching is going to be very difficult to make work."

Huang Shengjie's brow furrowed, "So let's focus on strategy for Round Three.

"The most urgent thing I think we need to confirm is whether Zhao Heng will actually keep his word. That directly determines what approach we take."

Zhou Wanlin shook her head, "My instinct is that he definitely won't.

"The reason is simple: they don't have enough Gold Pounds right now.

"I did a rough calculation of what both communities earned across the first two rounds. They should be just over 100,000.

"We should be at around 85,000.

"Both of those figures are after deducting the cost of raw materials and the 10,000 Gold Pounds spent on buying out of the prison. The Inspection Room fines aren't included yet.

"It's an estimate, so it won't be exact, but it shouldn't be far off."

Huang Shengjie was mildly surprised, "Really? So the gap between our two communities is smaller than I thought.

"I see. It must be because of those ten Contraband units that got pushed into Solitary Confinement in Round Two.

"After Zhao Heng tricked me into committing a violation, he pushed ten units of Contraband into Solitary Confinement, but Yao Yuan had timed his entry to be later, so he successfully intercepted them.

"That one move closed a gap of roughly 30,000 Gold Pounds. A very significant swing."

Zhou Wanlin continued, "Zhao Heng and Wu Xiufang may not know that happened, but they'll almost certainly factor in that possibility.

"If both communities send only Contraband through the steam train in Round Three, Community 23 will still be ahead, but the gap won't be large enough for them to reach one and a half times our total.

"So for Zhao Heng, if he wants the 1.5x bonus, he has to come and disrupt us, significantly cutting down our earnings.

"Under that approach, even if it costs him one fewer person running Contraband on his side, the overall trade-off works in their favour."

Huang Shengjie's expression turned grim, "So there's no deal to be made then?"

Yao Yuan lowered his head in thought, "On top of that, I've also considered another, worse possibility.

"Community 23 may have hidden some raw materials in the venue."

Huang Shengjie blinked, "Hidden materials? What do you mean?"

Yao Yuan explained, "There's a loophole in the rules that you've all missed.

"While the Distributor is waiting for the train to complete its run, they're actually not without things to do. They can carry raw materials closer to the Inspection Room during that time.

"Look at the floor plan. Between the Raw Materials Warehouse and the Inspection Room, there's the enclosed corridor with the steam train and its track.

"The moment no player is present in that corridor, the steam train stops.

"But if the Distributor stays in the corridor the whole time, there's no problem.

"Say Peng Xinyuan is the Distributor. After setting the train's delivery sequence, he has 12 minutes while the train runs.

"During that window, he could carry some raw materials from the warehouse and stack them near the Inspection Room in a relatively concealed spot along the corridor.

"Those materials can't enter the Inspection Room directly, but using that position as a starting point to deliver to the cell block shaves off roughly a third of the total distance."

Huang Shengjie thought for a moment, "That doesn't fit, though. When I intercepted him in Round Two, his travel time wasn't short enough for him to have started from the Inspection Room area. He must have come from the Raw Materials Warehouse.

"If he had been starting from near the Inspection Room, I wouldn't have been able to intercept him."

Yao Yuan explained, "He most likely stashed 'Medications' materials there, not the current round's Contraband.

"Because by Round Two or Three, the Prisoner players inside the prison will have come out, which gives them additional people to carry that stockpiled material.

"That's probably Wu Xiufang's plan.

"And the reason she decided to hold the stockpile until Round Three before using it is that moving it earlier might have been noticed and given the plan away.

"She didn't want us to pick up on that strategy."

Huang Shengjie's brow furrowed, "But the Contraband type for Round Three hasn't been announced yet. What's the point of pre-stocking 'Medications' materials?"

Yao Yuan shook his head, "Round One was 'Miscellaneous Goods.' Round Two was 'Food.' So Round Three is most likely 'Medications.'

"If that's true, our situation becomes considerably more difficult.

"Because Zhao Heng will still come to disrupt us, while Peng Xinyuan delivers that pre-stockpiled cache, and together they'll widen the gap in earnings even further."

Huang Shengjie looked deflated, "They've even thought of this. I never would have..."

Zhou Wanlin shook her head, "I'm not so sure.

"Not that they didn't stockpile anything, but the Round Three Contraband may not actually be 'Medications.'

"The game rules only said the system will select one category of material as Contraband. It never said it would cycle through all three categories once each.

"There's also this line in the rules: confirm this round's Contraband before formulating your transport plan.

"I think that might be a hint from the Imitator, warning players not to assume they can plan ahead for this."

Yao Yuan was mildly surprised, but after thinking it over carefully he gave a nod, "Yes, that does make sense.

"Let's hope that's how it turns out.

"But regardless, I'm certain Zhao Heng will come to disrupt us. There's no other possibility.

"This is not a genuine cooperation. It's just a temporary ceasefire."

Huang Shengjie let out a long breath, "Alright. So what exactly do we do in Round Three? Time's running short.

"The most pressing question is whether to run all Contraband or all ordinary materials through the steam train, and we need to decide that soon.

"Because it also determines our inspection strategy. If we're certain they won't cooperate, we could just do a Full Inspection of everything they send, confiscate all their Contraband, and collect the fines on top.

"And on our end, just run all ordinary materials."

Geng Yuxia said quickly, "If we're all agreed that they'll definitely go back on their word, shouldn't we just take the safest approach?

"We send only ordinary materials, and then do a Full Inspection on everything they send."

Yao Yuan gave a slight shake of his head, "That's not necessarily the best option. We could also consider sending only Contraband through the steam train and abandoning the inspection phase entirely.

"That mainly depends on whether we want to take a gamble."