Chapter 1460 1378 — X-Box Plan for ZEPS 4

Thursday, 12 February 2002 — Microsoft Offices, United States

Bill Gates had been spending considerably more time around Microsoft's X-Box division lately. Not because the division had suddenly become Microsoft's most profitable business, nor because Bill had abandoned the company's other priorities. It was simply becoming increasingly obvious that the video game market was changing much faster than Microsoft had originally expected.

And the biggest reason was sitting inside millions of homes across the world right now.

ZEPS 4.

Bill stood behind several engineers inside one of Microsoft's internal game-development rooms, silently observing as they worked through another long analysis session. On one table sat a completely disassembled ZEPS 4. Its black-and-silver outer shell had been removed, exposing the internal board, cooling system, storage assembly, optical drive, memory architecture, and several components Microsoft engineers had been studying almost obsessively since launch. Another machine remained fully assembled nearby, connected to multiple diagnostic devices.

Bill had already heard enough reports to understand the broad conclusion. In raw performance, software integration, online infrastructure, development environment, storage, media functionality, and overall console architecture, the current X-Box simply could not match it. The difference was not small either. ZEPS 4 had arrived from what felt like several years ahead.

That did not mean X-Box suddenly had no value. Microsoft had already spent too much money, manpower, and time establishing the platform to simply panic and abandon it after one competitor launched stronger hardware. Its existing audience still mattered, developers were still producing games for it, and Microsoft already had multiple future releases in development.

But pretending everything was fine would be even more foolish.

Bill watched one engineer compare memory-performance measurements before finally glancing toward Seamus Blackley, who had been standing nearby with his arms folded. "So," Bill asked, "any luck analyzing this thing?"

Seamus looked toward the opened console before answering, "A lot, actually. More than we had a week ago." When Bill remarked that this sounded promising, Seamus gave a dry smile. "It is. But also annoying."

Bill raised an eyebrow. "Because?"

Seamus stepped closer to the table and pointed toward several diagrams displayed beside the machine. "Because the more we understand it, the more obvious it becomes that the impressive part isn't just individual specifications. The CPU is strong. The GPU is strong. Memory bandwidth is ridiculous for a console. We already knew that from the public specifications. But ZAGE designed everything around working together from the start—hardware, operating system, development tools, online functions, Unreal Engine 4 support. It's integrated extremely well."

Bill looked toward the motherboard again and slowly nodded. "So simply copying the specifications wouldn't reproduce the experience."

"Exactly," Seamus replied. "You could theoretically build something with similar numbers, but if the architecture around it is inefficient, you still won't get the same result. Their developers clearly had input extremely early."

Bill remained silent for another moment before muttering, "That sounds like Zaboru."

Seamus chuckled. "Unfortunately."

A little while later, the two left the development floor and moved into one of the smaller meeting rooms nearby. A whiteboard covered one wall, while another side of the room contained internal X-Box sales projections, future-development schedules, studio roadmaps, and competitor information.

Bill sat down first and folded his hands together. "Alright, Seam. Let's talk about the next few years. We aren't rushing a replacement console."

Seamus immediately nodded. "Good."

"At the earliest, I'm thinking two or three years," Bill continued. "I don't want us panicking because ZAGE released something better and then throwing together hardware in twelve months."

Seamus leaned back slightly. "That would be suicide."

"Exactly." Bill's voice stayed calm, almost analytical. "If we're building another X-Box, I want it designed properly. And when it arrives, I want it capable of exceeding what ZEPS 4 represents at that time—not what ZEPS 4 represents today."

That last part made Seamus smile. "That's important. Because if we spend three years trying to beat February 2002 ZAGE while ZAGE spends those same three years improving software, development tools, manufacturing, online services, and probably preparing whatever comes after ZEPS 4, then we're still behind."

Bill nodded once. There was no irritation in his face, only calculation. "Take our time. Learn everything we can. But meanwhile…" He tapped one finger against the table. "We still have an X-Box on shelves."

Seamus leaned forward slightly. "That's exactly what I wanted to talk about. We cannot treat the current system like it's already dead just because ZEPS 4 exists. If anything, now is when we need to support it harder."

Bill agreed. "What's our next major software window?"

Seamus stood and walked toward the whiteboard. "March. We've got three games lined up."

"I heard three," Bill replied. "How close are they?"

"Almost ready. Final testing and polishing right now." Seamus picked up a marker and began adding notes to the board. "All three are projects we're confident in. They're different enough from each other that they don't chase the exact same audience, and they're important because they show that X-Box still has software worth paying attention to."

Bill gave a small approving nod. Seamus then explained that his plan was to push the entire month aggressively through trailers, previews, demos, magazine coverage, retail promotion, and anything else Microsoft could coordinate. Bill listened for a moment before asking the more important question. "And your assumption is that ZAGE will be relatively quiet?"

"For ZEPS 4 specifically? Yes," Seamus replied.

Bill's gaze sharpened slightly. "How confident are you?"

"Reasonably."

"Based on what?"

Seamus put the marker down and turned back toward him. "Development reality. We've spent days studying ZEPS 4 games now. Not just playing them—looking at what those games actually contain. The asset quality, animation work, AI, online features, scale, production values, polish. Twelve launch titles at that standard is insane."

Bill smiled faintly. "That's one way of describing it."

"And that's exactly why I don't think they can repeat that pace constantly," Seamus continued. "Even with ZAGE's manpower, games still take time. ZEPS 4 being powerful doesn't magically make production free. Higher-quality assets take longer. Better animation takes longer. More complex AI needs more testing. Online functionality adds another layer. Voice work, music, cinematics, QA—it all scales."

Bill nodded. "So you believe most of those twelve games were built in parallel long before launch."

"They had to be. And once that launch wave is out, there should naturally be a gap."

Bill rested one elbow against the table. "How large?"

"I'd estimate at least three to four months before another major ZEPS 4 release of comparable quality," Seamus answered. "They might still publish ZEPS 3 games. Their handheld won't stop. PC definitely won't stop. ZAGE has too many teams and too many platforms for the company itself to become quiet. But ZEPS 4 should breathe."

Bill slowly nodded. "That's our window."

"Exactly." Seamus grinned. "February belongs to ZAGE. Fine. Everyone's talking about ZEPS 4. Trying to fight that directly would just burn marketing money. March is where we push X-Box again."

He returned to the whiteboard and tapped the schedule. "We release three strong games close enough together that players suddenly have a reason to look back at X-Box. Not because we claim X-Box is more powerful. That argument is dead."

Bill chuckled. "At least you're realistic."

"Trying to advertise that would get us laughed out of the room," Seamus admitted. "So we compete through software. We remind the audience that the console they already own still has games they can't play anywhere else. We don't need every gamer immediately. We need our existing users confident that buying X-Box wasn't a mistake, and we need undecided players to see a platform that's still growing."

Bill smiled slightly. "Retention before expansion."

"Exactly."

That sounded considerably more sensible to Bill than attempting to imitate ZAGE directly, and Seamus openly admitted that he had already learned that lesson. After a brief pause, Bill reached for another document on the table and changed the subject. "What about Unreal Engine? You've been studying that too, right?"

Seamus's expression shifted. "Obviously."

"Can we create something comparable?"

Seamus sighed and sat down again. "Technically? We already have internal technology moving in that direction. Our game teams use Microsoft's own tools and engine framework, and yes—before you say it—parts of our newer systems are very heavily…"

He paused deliberately.

"…inspired."

Bill smirked. "By Unreal Engine."

"Very inspired."

Bill chuckled. "I appreciate the honesty."

Seamus explained that Microsoft could continue expanding its framework with a better rendering pipeline, stronger tools, improved scripting, more standardized asset workflows, and eventually perhaps release a public version. Bill listened carefully, then tapped the table. "But?"

Seamus gave him a knowing look. "But nobody cares yet."

Bill laughed softly. "That was what I was going to say."

"Unreal Engine already has the name," Seamus continued. "ZAGE spent years building that reputation. Developers know it. Studios know it. Students know it. And now Zaboru is literally traveling around telling young developers to experiment with games while ZAGE uploads free tutorials to YouTube. Apparently the event turned into half developer lecture, half stand-up comedy because Zaboru kept making everyone laugh."

Bill sighed with a faint smile. "That event yesterday."

"Exactly."

Bill shook his head. "That bastard somehow turned developer education, documentation, and community building into public relations while making himself look even more approachable."

Seamus laughed. "Pretty much."

"And people loved it."

"Of course they did."

Bill seemed more amused than irritated. "He's annoyingly good at making business decisions look like generosity."

Seamus leaned back in his chair. "To be fair, I think part of it actually is generosity."

Bill stared at him for a moment, then laughed. "That makes it worse."

Both men laughed before Bill became thoughtful again. Releasing Microsoft's own engine publicly tomorrow clearly would not accomplish much. Seamus agreed that it would not be completely pointless, but Microsoft would immediately be competing against an ecosystem that already included tutorials, documentation, community knowledge, established developers, examples, and UE4 itself.

Bill made the decision quickly. "Then don't rush that either."

Seamus blinked. "Boss?"

"We've already agreed we shouldn't panic with hardware. Same logic applies here."

Bill stood and walked toward the whiteboard. "If we ever release our engine publicly, there needs to be a reason to choose it."

Seamus's expression brightened slightly. "Exactly."

"Not just 'Unreal Engine, but Microsoft.'"

"Exactly."

Bill picked up the marker and wrote one sentence beneath the March schedule.

WHY USE OUR TOOLS?

He capped the marker and looked toward Seamus. "Figure that out first."

Seamus nodded. "That's fair."

Bill returned to his chair and began thinking aloud. "Maybe Windows integration. Maybe we make X-Box development much easier. Maybe some kind of shared PC-console workflow where the same tools target both environments cleanly. I don't know yet."

Seamus immediately looked interested. "That actually has potential."

"Then investigate it."

"Will do."

Another pause followed before Bill looked back toward the X-Box release schedule. "You're confident these next releases can carry us?"

Seamus nodded. "I'm confident they'll help."

Bill smiled slightly. "Not beat ZEPS 4."

Seamus laughed. "I'm not drunk, boss."

Bill laughed with him. Seamus then explained that X-Box did not need to defeat ZEPS 4 tomorrow. Microsoft needed to survive the next two or three years, strengthen the platform, continue building its studios, improve development technology, and learn from every mistake along the way. When Bill asked what came after that, Seamus's grin widened.

"Then our next era begins."

Bill nodded slowly.

He liked that answer.

Microsoft had resources, engineering talent, operating-system expertise, a growing game division, and most importantly, time—provided they did not waste it.

Bill looked toward the window for a moment before turning back to Seamus. "Then keep working. I want the current X-Box supported properly. I want the March software push strong. I want the ZEPS 4 analysis continued. And I want early architecture planning for our next machine without rushing anything."

Seamus nodded. "Understood."

Bill smiled faintly before adding one last warning. "And Seam?"

"Yeah?"

"If you predict what ZAGE is going to do, leave some room for them to do something completely stupid."

Seamus laughed. "Stupid?"

"Stupid from our perspective," Bill clarified. "They have a habit of doing things competitors wouldn't normally consider."

Seamus thought about it for a moment before nodding. "Fair."

Still, as the meeting concluded, both men remained reasonably confident in one assumption.

ZEPS 4 had just launched with twelve enormous games.

Even ZAGE needed time to breathe.

The development requirements alone made another major wave in the immediate future seem unlikely. March, therefore, looked like a valuable opportunity for Microsoft to pull some attention back toward X-Box and remind the market that it remained very much alive.

Bill left the meeting room feeling considerably better than when he had entered, while Seamus remained behind for another minute, studying the release schedule and Microsoft's future plans.

On paper, the logic was solid.

The data supported it.

The production timelines supported it.

Everything they had learned from modern game development supported it.

If Hikaru Kurata had somehow been standing outside the meeting room listening to the entire conversation, however, the Sonaya CEO probably would have laughed until his stomach hurt.

Because he had experienced this exact feeling before.

Study ZAGE.

Understand its resources.

Analyze the company's development cycle.

Predict the most logical thing Zaboru could possibly do next.

Build an entire strategy around that prediction.

And then—

Well.

Microsoft would learn.

To be continued.